Forecasting the need for palliative and hospice care using the creeping trend method with segment smoothing

Abstract

Aim: To determine the limits of refinement of the forecast of the need for palliative and hospice care (PHC) among adults and children, made by the methods of linear, logarithmic and exponential trends, using the improved forecasting method. Materials and Methods: Based on the calculated demand for 2018-2020, a demand forecast was made using the linear trend method for 2021 and 2022, which was verified by comparing it with the calculation based on available statistical data for 2022. To improve the forecasting result, the creeping trend method with a smoothing segment was used. Results: The estimated need for PHC by the linear trend method for 2022 was 87,254 adults and 46,122 children. The predicted need for this year by the linear trend method was 172,303 for adults and 45,517 for children. The prediction using the sliding trend method with segment smoothing was found to be 4.7 times more accurate and reliable for adults and all age groups combined, but was less accurate and not reliable for children. It was found out that in order to achieve a reliable forecast, it is necessary to clarify the data of medical statistics regarding of malignant neoplasms and congenital malformations, as well as demographic statistics. Conclusions: The method of a creeping trend gave more accurate results and made it possible to determine the reliability of the forecast, allowed to take into account the simultaneous influence of various input parameters.