Epidemiological surveillance system on the basis of the forecasting intellectual methods

Abstract

In this paper problems of informatization in the field of monitoring and epidemiology supervision of infectious diseases are considered. The importance of a collaborative approach to the prevention and control of infections are highlighted. Time series forecasting methods are described. Basic methods of statistical, regression and fractal analysis are used. Also the problem of epidemic thresholds modeling was considered. The implementation of the fuzzy clustering procedure in the method of epidemic thresholds calculation was proposed. This feature allows exclude epidemic information from the calculation data, which will improve trueness and certainty of results substantially.