Compartment Model of COVID-19 Epidemic Process in Ukraine

Abstract

The paper presents a compartment model of the dynamics of the incidence of the new coronavirus (COVID-19). An approach to the construction of SIR models is shown. The SIRF model for the COVID-19 epidemic process in Ukraine has been built. Morbidity data provided by the Center of Public Health of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. The morbidity was analyzed, the assessment of the stay of people in public places before and during quarantine was carried out. Based on the simulation results, the predicted incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine for 10 and 60 days was calculated. The research implementation results enhance the efficiency of management decisions to ensure the biosafety of the population and the development of scientifically based strategies for anti-epidemic and preventive measures. The results obtained in this study expand the possibilities for making correct decisions by administrators who determine strategies in the health care of countries.