Computer Aided System of Time Series Analysis Methods for Forecasting the Epidemics Outbreaks
Date
2019-02-26
Authors
Polyvianna, Yulia
Chumachenko, Dmytro
Chumachenko, Tetyana
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Abstract
The research is devoted to the problem of predicting the incidence of gastroenterocollitis. The paper discusses the forecasting of time series by statistical models. The methods of exponential smoothing and adaptive exponential smoothing are proposed, applied to additive and multiplicative time series models. The analysis of the results obtained using the developed computer aided system.
Description
Keywords
forecasting of time series, forecasting the epidemic process, method of exponential smoothing, brown polynomial model, adaptive Holt method
Citation
Polyvianna Y. Computer Aided System of Time Series Analysis Methods for Forecasting the Epidemics Outbreaks / Yulia Polyvianna, Dmytro Chumachenko, Tetyana Chumachenko // The Experience of Designing and Application of CAD Systems (CADSM) : 2019 15th International Conference, Polyana (Svalyava), February 26–March 2, 2019 : Conference Proceedings / IEEE Ukraine Section, IEEE Ukraine Section (West) MTT/ED/AP/EP/SSC Societies Joint Chapter, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lodz University of Technology. – [Lviv], 2019. – P. 7/1–7/4.